{"schema":1,"updatedAt":1788051608038,"methodologyVersion":"2026-07-29.v2","license":{"name":"Public aggregate statistics — quote and cite with attribution","attribution":"When's the Power Back? (whensthepowerback.com)","url":"https://whensthepowerback.com/research/utility-etr-reliability#cite","note":"Aggregates on this endpoint may be quoted and cited with attribution and a link. Event-level records and programmatic bulk access are not part of the public dataset."},"sample":{"gradedEvents":600,"totalScored":10298,"comparableEvents":66,"trackedClosed":19641,"windowStart":1787817646026,"windowEnd":1788051608038},"headline":{"utilityPushbackRate":83,"avgLaterRevisions":5.5,"utilityMedianAbsoluteErrorHours":2.2,"independentMedianAbsoluteErrorHours":1.5},"metrics":{"independentWholeEventMae":{"label":"our median absolute error (whole event)","def":"Median absolute error, in hours, of every estimate we published across a completed outage, against its observed effective restoration (count first at/below 10% of peak and holding). Median across events."},"utilityPostedMae":{"label":"posted-time median absolute error (as recorded)","def":"Median absolute error, in hours, of the posted restoration times we recorded — a restoration time carried by the national county feed (the only posted-time source the event series records) — over the readings where one was present while meaningfully out, against the same observed restoration. Median across those events. Events where the utility posted a time that never reached that feed are NOT counted."},"independentOnPostedMae":{"label":"our median absolute error on the same posted-time events","def":"independentWholeEventMae restricted to the events counted by utilityPostedMae — same event population, whole-event alignment (not the same readings). It inherits that metric's posted-time source limitation exactly."},"timeMatchedHeadToHead":{"label":"time-matched head-to-head (same readings)","def":"Both graded at the identical readings where a recorded posted time — a restoration time carried by the national county feed (the only posted-time source the event series records) — AND our estimator both produced a value: the strictest like-for-like. Reported as a pair (posted vs ours) with its own n."},"utilityPushbackRate":{"label":"posted time moved later at least once","def":"Share of events carrying a recorded posted time — a restoration time carried by the national county feed (the only posted-time source the event series records) — where that time moved later by >30 minutes at least once before restoration. Earlier moves are not counted, and events whose posted time never reached that feed are not in the denominator."},"avgLaterRevisions":{"label":"average later revisions per posted-time event","def":"Mean count of >30-minute later moves of the recorded posted time per event carrying one — a restoration time carried by the national county feed (the only posted-time source the event series records) — counting 0 when it held."}},"headToHeadWinPct":54,"overall":{"scored":600,"closed":19641,"totalScored":10298,"medMae":1.7,"within":{"h1":38,"h2":55,"h4":72},"bias":-0.1,"buckets":[{"magnitude":"<500","n":262,"medMae":1.5},{"magnitude":"500-2k","n":244,"medMae":2.1},{"magnitude":"2k-10k","n":87,"medMae":1.7},{"magnitude":"10k-50k","n":6,"medMae":2.1},{"magnitude":"50k+","n":1,"medMae":20.9}],"official":{"n":64,"medMae":2.2,"bias":-0.5,"oursOnSame":1.5,"matched":{"n":61,"off":1.5,"ours":1.4},"pushed":{"n":66,"pct":83,"med":3},"changed":{"n":66,"pct":86,"med":4}},"firstFinal":{"n":600,"medFirst":2.1,"medFinal":0.8},"horizons":{"h1":{"n":564,"med":2.3},"h3":{"n":438,"med":2.8},"h6":{"n":261,"med":3}},"oldestT":1787817646026,"newestT":1788051608038},"trend":{"cohorts":[{"n":195,"fromT":1787817646026,"toT":1787882456284,"medErrPct":23,"medAbsH":2,"medLenH":8},{"n":195,"fromT":1787883357349,"toT":1787964337521,"medErrPct":21,"medAbsH":1.5,"medLenH":8},{"n":195,"fromT":1787964337521,"toT":1788051608038,"medErrPct":22,"medAbsH":1.5,"medLenH":8}],"deltaPct":-1,"lenDeltaH":0},"states":[{"state":"NY","name":"New York","n":17,"slipPct":82,"revAvg":2.8,"utilityMaeHours":1.8,"independentMaeHours":1},{"state":"CA","name":"California","n":13,"slipPct":92,"revAvg":17.2,"utilityMaeHours":5,"independentMaeHours":3.1},{"state":"UT","name":"Utah","n":9,"slipPct":100,"revAvg":3.4,"utilityMaeHours":2.5,"independentMaeHours":1.4},{"state":"MI","name":"Michigan","n":6,"slipPct":67,"revAvg":1.5,"utilityMaeHours":3.2,"independentMaeHours":4.1},{"state":"MA","name":"Massachusetts","n":5,"slipPct":80,"revAvg":2.2,"utilityMaeHours":0.3,"independentMaeHours":1.9}],"utilities":[{"name":"PACIFICORP","n":16,"slipPct":94,"revAvg":3,"utilityMaeHours":2.5,"independentMaeHours":1.4},{"name":"NATIONAL GRID","n":14,"slipPct":86,"revAvg":2.7,"utilityMaeHours":1.5,"independentMaeHours":1.9},{"name":"SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EDISON CO","n":11,"slipPct":91,"revAvg":19.5,"utilityMaeHours":5.5,"independentMaeHours":3.1}],"utilitiesNearThreshold":[6,5],"examples":[{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"29095","peak":880,"restoreHrs":2.5,"ourErrHours":17.9,"utilityErrHours":0.5},{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"48291","peak":913,"restoreHrs":1.7,"ourErrHours":22.9,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"34027","peak":5413,"restoreHrs":8.2,"ourErrHours":33.2,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"06057","peak":618,"restoreHrs":7.5,"ourErrHours":1.5,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"06089","peak":1382,"restoreHrs":8,"ourErrHours":5.3,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"12099","peak":3889,"restoreHrs":43.7,"ourErrHours":0.5,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"12051","peak":1589,"restoreHrs":2.5,"ourErrHours":0.6,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"37183","peak":2339,"restoreHrs":2,"ourErrHours":0.2,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"09003","peak":295,"restoreHrs":5,"ourErrHours":7.2,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-29","fips":"06001","peak":680,"restoreHrs":6.7,"ourErrHours":7.3,"utilityErrHours":null}],"thresholds":{"stateMinN":5,"utilityMinN":10,"examplesCap":10}}